It's been a couple weeks since the last one so was overdue - RIP. Pittsburgh shooting

[92redragtop]

Only 2 victims. Only reason that made the press at all was because the shooter was confronted by a man wielding a broom!

True, but as a mass shooting I believe there were an additional 5 victims shot but expected to survive.

[Laffs]

Why are you bringing statistical methodology into this????

Because my belief is that someone saying “overall crime is way down” is somewhat inaccurate and that while the rate decreased somewhat substantially the instances stayed the same or increased. Which I believe points to an issue with guns.

[92redragtop]

Because my belief is that someone saying “overall crime is way down” is somewhat inaccurate and that while the rate decreased somewhat substantially the instances stayed the same or increased. Which I believe points to an issue with guns.

Agreed - the data only makes sense when statistical context is added.

[Laffs]

Agreed - the data only makes sense when statistical context is added.

Ah, initially thought you were coming after me for trying to add context lol.

[5.4MarkVIII]

And the shooter in Cali had known mental health issues (PTSD) and had a run in with police back in April. In which his mental health was reported as an issue. And despite being in Cali (the state with the most strict gun laws in the US) they did not relieve him of his guns.

And once again people are dead.

Seems to be a very obvious pattern

[5.4MarkVIII]

c-g04-eng.jpg


seems interesting to me there is no drastic drop in murders by gun in Canada even though our gun laws got more stringent, also interesting to note that stabbings in Canada occur almost as regularly, and actual raising above guns multiple times, one can almost make the argument that if people cant get a gun they still find other ways of hurting people

[92redragtop]

c-g04-eng.jpg


seems interesting to me there is no drastic drop in murders by gun in Canada even though our gun laws got more stringent, also interesting to note that stabbings in Canada occur almost as regularly, and actual raising above guns multiple times, one can almost make the argument that if people cant get a gun they still find other ways of hurting people

For the gun stat, it appeared to be trending downward generally until the "summer of the gun" anomaly which I believe normalized to previous trend rates until summer 2018, so a pre-1989 +0.7/100K reduction to average between 0.5-0.6/100K post 1989 is statistically significant.

I'm not sure the stabbing stat is statistically comparable to the shooting stat because there exponentially more knives in circulation due to it not being regulated/licenced and primary use is for food/household/work/recreation purposes versus guns which have one ultimate purpose (hence the regulation). The knife data may be positive since there may be way more knives in circulation in 2016 vs 1989, while stabbings decreased or at least stayed flat on a smoothed average basis.

[92redragtop]

gotta look this over but thought I'd post for other eyes to scrutinize

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s..._2010-2014.xls

this is interesting, Texas and Cali lead. One state with strict gun controls, the other not so much

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...ables/table-12

Looks like gun homicide relatively flat when 2014 adjusted out (could be an anomaly; post 2014 data needed to determine true longer term run rate trend).

Cali is #1 in population size and Texas is #2 although that does not explain all of the difference since you may expect the 3rd populated to be #3 (did not see it on the list). The top 3 states are either low gun control or surrounded by low gun control borders/states so I would think the inflow of freely available firearms would impact number of incidents upward in stricter gun control states since they're not geographic bubbles.