Post whatever is on your mind!!

[5.4MarkVIII]

Is that the takeaway on a decade long (or more) structural supply/demand issue that's underpinning bidding wars now? It's likely any government in place now would focus less on this since they have limited ability to change it in the next 12+ months (takes longer to build new processing infrastructure) versus focusing on other more pressing issues like the threat this week for the Enbridge line to be shut down in the US which would interrupt the flow of oil to markets in the south or getting a tax/duty exemption for Canadian products in cross-border trade which can have immediate effect. The demand/supply issue is capitalism/free markets at work and it will resolve itself over time - that's what happens in capitalism. Do we not like that now?

The way I see it. It’s not a supply and demand issue.

Lumber has been classified as essential and was never shut down.
Lumber mills are mostly automated and don’t run large staff factory’s like they used too. There for were not largely impacted by covid staff restrictions

Yes there will be some slow down and some increase in demand. But not anywhere near what is causing the rise at 4 times the rate a year ago.

There is political factor and benefit gain as well as people making stupid amounts of money taking advantage of pandemic conditions.

That is not capitalism. That’s cronyism.


If people don’t believe this then fine. But why has other building supplies not seen the same 400% increase while dealing with the same supply and demand issues.

Your right the lumber issue has been a long standing POLITICAL issue. That just backs up why the current increase is about politics and money and not justified via supply and demand.

[92redragtop]

Demand has been going down since the crash in 2008 and capacity has been shrinking at an absolute rate so it's not just automation that's reduced employment but maintained output capacity. And yes, softwood lumber has always been a political issue due to the employment and resource components but aggregate sector output is lower due to structural demand trends over the past 12-13 years. Here is an example from pre-pandemic that highlights where supply/demand was and was going back in 2019.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...reds-more-laid



Two more Canadian lumber mills shut down, hundreds more laid off
By Robert Dalheim September 16, 2019 | 12:19 pm CDT

CANADA - Ontario-based Kenora Forest Products (KFP) and British Columbia's Teal-Jones will both shut down production because of weakened lumber markets.

KFP's two-week shutdown will begin September 23. Staggered layoffs have already begun and more than 115 workers will be affected. Kenora Miner & News reports the curtailment is a result of weakened lumber markets both domestically and internationally, as well the U.S.-imposed softwood lumber duties. More than 95 percent of the company's lumber is destined for the U.S.

Once again citing weak markets, Teal-Jones will shut down its harvesting operations on the coast of British Columbia. CBC News reports that a "substantial" number of employees will be out of work.

British Columbia - Canada's largest lumber-producing province - exported just over 514 million board feet of lumber to the U.S. in October 2018, down from 645 million board feet from the same time 2017. It has also seen more than 20 mill closures and curtailments. Many Canadian lumber leaders have taken a hit - including West Fraser, Canfor, Interfor, and Conifex - and have either shut down plants or restricted production, with West Fraser and Canfor curtailing production more than once.

All cited challenging lumber markets, high log costs, log supply constraints, falling lumber prices, and U.S. import tariffs as factors.

Softwood lumber import tariffs of around 21 percent were levied onto Canada last year. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) told MarketWatch that those tariffs are restructuring the entire lumber global supply chain - incentivizing U.S. buyers to import from overseas rather than ship lumber across the Canadian border.

[5.4MarkVIII]

Demand has been going down since the crash in 2008 and capacity has been shrinking at an absolute rate so it's not just automation that's reduced employment but maintained output capacity. And yes, softwood lumber has always been a political issue due to the employment and resource components but aggregate sector output is lower due to structural demand trends over the past 12-13 years. Here is an example from pre-pandemic that highlights where supply/demand was and was going back in 2019.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...reds-more-laid



Two more Canadian lumber mills shut down, hundreds more laid off
By Robert Dalheim September 16, 2019 | 12:19 pm CDT

CANADA - Ontario-based Kenora Forest Products (KFP) and British Columbia's Teal-Jones will both shut down production because of weakened lumber markets.

KFP's two-week shutdown will begin September 23. Staggered layoffs have already begun and more than 115 workers will be affected. Kenora Miner & News reports the curtailment is a result of weakened lumber markets both domestically and internationally, as well the U.S.-imposed softwood lumber duties. More than 95 percent of the company's lumber is destined for the U.S.

Once again citing weak markets, Teal-Jones will shut down its harvesting operations on the coast of British Columbia. CBC News reports that a "substantial" number of employees will be out of work.

British Columbia - Canada's largest lumber-producing province - exported just over 514 million board feet of lumber to the U.S. in October 2018, down from 645 million board feet from the same time 2017. It has also seen more than 20 mill closures and curtailments. Many Canadian lumber leaders have taken a hit - including West Fraser, Canfor, Interfor, and Conifex - and have either shut down plants or restricted production, with West Fraser and Canfor curtailing production more than once.

All cited challenging lumber markets, high log costs, log supply constraints, falling lumber prices, and U.S. import tariffs as factors.

Softwood lumber import tariffs of around 21 percent were levied onto Canada last year. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) told MarketWatch that those tariffs are restructuring the entire lumber global supply chain - incentivizing U.S. buyers to import from overseas rather than ship lumber across the Canadian border.

When I search and read articles regarding the softwood “shortages” they mostly refer to logistical and transportation issues. And not a physical shortage of wood.

The lumber industry isn’t the only industry struggling with transportation.

I have freezers that have been in back order since last fall when then come in I don’t charge the customer 4 times what they are worth.

Why is the lumber industry the only one bending consumers over!

[92redragtop]

Nature of supply chain is different than for gypsum, etc., for example, which can be stockpiled more efficiently from the mines and production can be ramped up more easily than with E2E timber/lumber...plus the new build demand. I can see steel being an issue as well given the relative fixed capacity with the plants (although they may not have been operating close to capacity pre-pandemic so may have had a buffer). Outside of construction other sectors are being affected by macro supply/demand misalignment as well (eg. semi-conductors; consumers pay more via the end product).

Stascan report up to about 2007 which shows the industry was already in trouble due to falling prices and demand (Canada and US) except for a short uptick in the US before the big crash, and we know the decade that followed saw the construction industry south of the border fall off a cliff which means the companies had to get underperforming assets off their balance sheets.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/p...df?st=k2z3qbby

[xeninworx]

While driving home from work just now, an older man in a blue S550 GT vert pulled next to me and gave me a thumbs up. I gave him a thumbs too.

[Zippy]

Couldn't resist it anymore. Took my car out for a drive with ZR. Felt great to be behind the wheel.

[ZR]

Few thumbs up from others, Dech gettin it done.

[92redragtop]

Good day for it.

[92redragtop]

Our steel-based car parts might be pricey into 2022....might be time to short steel.


After bottoming out around $460 last year, US benchmark hot-rolled coil steel prices are now sitting at around $1,500 a ton, a record high that is nearly triple the 20-year average.
Steel stocks are on fire. US Steel (X), which crashed to a record low last March amid bankruptcy fears, has skyrocketed 200% in just 12 months. Nucor (NUE) has spiked 76% this year alone.
While "scarcity and panic" are lifting steel prices and stocks today, Tanners predicted a painful reversal as supply catches up with what she described as unimpressive demand.
"We expect this will correct — and often when it corrects, it over-corrects," said Tanners, a two-decade veteran of the metals industry who authored a report last week headlined "Steel stocks in a bubble."

[newbiestangowner]

Our steel-based car parts might be pricey into 2022....might be time to short steel.


After bottoming out around $460 last year, US benchmark hot-rolled coil steel prices are now sitting at around $1,500 a ton, a record high that is nearly triple the 20-year average.
Steel stocks are on fire. US Steel (X), which crashed to a record low last March amid bankruptcy fears, has skyrocketed 200% in just 12 months. Nucor (NUE) has spiked 76% this year alone.
While "scarcity and panic" are lifting steel prices and stocks today, Tanners predicted a painful reversal as supply catches up with what she described as unimpressive demand.
"We expect this will correct — and often when it corrects, it over-corrects," said Tanners, a two-decade veteran of the metals industry who authored a report last week headlined "Steel stocks in a bubble."

I’ll believe it when I see it ( corrects)




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