PDA

View Full Version : No Fear, Gas powered vehicles will be around for a long time....



Gr8Stang
10-07-2019, 10:44 AM
Good News for us traditional guys... :thumbsup:


Financial media loves to tout the coming revolution in electric vehicles, but very little attention is paid to ongoing dominance of gasoline-powered SUVs in the market,
“Anyone who believes that behavioural change is going to produce a solution to the challenge of global warming should take a good look at the latest figures on consumer choices in the auto sector.

Electric vehicles are growing in number and quality but they are being outstripped by the popularity of SUVs… The 7m to 8m EVs that should be on the road by the end of 2019 represent less than a tenth of 1 per cent of the 1.1bn cars and other light vehicles that use internal combustion engines. Some 85m ICE vehicles were sold worldwide in 2018… In the US, SUVs account for 45 per cent of new car sales.

“Electric vehicles are being outpaced by the growth of SUVs” – Financial Times (paywall)

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 12:11 PM
What does the rest of the article say?

They are also haphazardly mixing stats in that teaser content so I'm curious to see how they lay out the stats on a comparative basis (accurately). Not sure what their definitions are either - full EV, Hybrid, etc. Does the rest of the article address this and quantify?

fast Ed
10-07-2019, 12:21 PM
Sounds like they may be basing this on North American trends too ... in Europe and Asia, the vehicle manufacturers are pushing the other options harder, especially for customers in busy cities.

stangstevers
10-07-2019, 12:23 PM
Here's the thing.

ELECTRIC CARS ARE NOT THE ANSWER TO SAVING A PLANET. No matter what side you are on the climate debate, electric cars won't do shit!

- Coal still accounts for 40% of WORLD's energy

Increasing demand for for electricity until the planetary grid is somehow magically converted to clean energy will do fuck-all. I'd argue electric cars will increase overall CO2 production over gas powered vehicles, especially if we somehow make it illegal to burn gasoline overnight, the production demand for electrics will do to the planet what the climate alarmists are currently (falsely) pontificating.

Remember the old saying, "reduce, reuse, recycle"... We always forget the first R... making the climate-alarmists extremely stupid. So consume less power, in layman's terms that means:

- eat more efficient protein
- travel less
- buy less shit

For example: My company has about 300 cars in the parking lot, 100 of those could be taken off the road (jobs that are 100% internet related and could be done from anywhere). That's better than replacing all 300 cars with electric. But it's easier to judge someone else's backyard by purchasing carbon credits and put some infrastructure in a 3rd world country to reduce pollution before facing our own challenges or "dirty rooms" as Peterson would put it.

So, in the words of a recent puppet: HOW DARE YOU

How dare you think that taking my gas powered car away will solve the so-called planetary crises that's supposed to end humanity in 12 years!


Side note: I like the concept of electric cars though, from a performance perspective they are hard to beat. It's just not the answer, it's a leftist "feel good" measure. Edit: I have to admit that smelly cars get on my nerves to no end. It's at the point where I shut off my HVAC if the car in front smells like unburnt fuel or is a diesel. Makes me wish for an electric powered highway... nice and clean local air... is it too much to ask for?

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 12:43 PM
Where is the 40% coal data coming from? Quick Google search appears to show US usage at 39% 5-6 years ago and declining to low 30's by last year. Globally, coal appears to be in the low 30's as well based on 2013 data. All depends on who's presenting the data I guess.

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 12:45 PM
Sounds like they may be basing this on North American trends too ... in Europe and Asia, the vehicle manufacturers are pushing the other options harder, especially for customers in busy cities.

Yes, that's why I think looking at the rest of the content would help. When you see a writer mixing stats/ambiguous data definitions in their presentation that usually means misrepresentation to an agenda or they don't understand the numbers themselves.

Gr8Stang
10-07-2019, 01:14 PM
What does the rest of the article say?

They are also haphazardly mixing stats in that teaser content so I'm curious to see how they lay out the stats on a comparative basis (accurately). Not sure what their definitions are either - full EV, Hybrid, etc. Does the rest of the article address this and quantify?

Here's the link to the article: https://www.ft.com/content/24fffce8-e52a-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

I agree with the author; Government projections of zero carbon emissions by 2050....is likely wishful thinking, unless there is a big change of mind in the consumers. Per my original post, the EV's only represent one tenth of one percent currently vs. the gas powered numbers.....worldwide.

Gr8Stang
10-07-2019, 01:17 PM
Here's the thing.

ELECTRIC CARS ARE NOT THE ANSWER TO SAVING A PLANET. No matter what side you are on the climate debate, electric cars won't do shit!

- Coal still accounts for 40% of WORLD's energy

Increasing demand for for electricity until the planetary grid is somehow magically converted to clean energy will do fuck-all. I'd argue electric cars will increase overall CO2 production over gas powered vehicles, especially if we somehow make it illegal to burn gasoline overnight, the production demand for electrics will do to the planet what the climate alarmists are currently (falsely) pontificating.

Remember the old saying, "reduce, reuse, recycle"... We always forget the first R... making the climate-alarmists extremely stupid. So consume less power, in layman's terms that means:

- eat more efficient protein
- travel less
- buy less shit

For example: My company has about 300 cars in the parking lot, 100 of those could be taken off the road (jobs that are 100% internet related and could be done from anywhere). That's better than replacing all 300 cars with electric. But it's easier to judge someone else's backyard by purchasing carbon credits and put some infrastructure in a 3rd world country to reduce pollution before facing our own challenges or "dirty rooms" as Peterson would put it.

So, in the words of a recent puppet: HOW DARE YOU

How dare you think that taking my gas powered car away will solve the so-called planetary crises that's supposed to end humanity in 12 years!


Side note: I like the concept of electric cars though, from a performance perspective they are hard to beat. It's just not the answer, it's a leftist "feel good" measure. Edit: I have to admit that smelly cars get on my nerves to no end. It's at the point where I shut off my HVAC if the car in front smells like unburnt fuel or is a diesel. Makes me wish for an electric powered highway... nice and clean local air... is it too much to ask for?

And lest we forget.....Air travel is one of the biggest offenders of carbon emissions of all! Wonder when they'll go electric....hmmmm.

RedSN
10-07-2019, 01:25 PM
...Wonder when they'll go electric....hmmmm.
They're working on it.

https://thedriven.io/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/H55_API0976-3.jpg

Manufactured by BRM Aero, the Bristell Energic is entirely powered by an electric propulsion system, built by H55, a Member of the World Alliance for Efficient Solutions.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/files/2014/04/2014_04_04_SolarImpulse2_revillard_07.jpg-1024x683.jpeg

Obviously not talking about high-capacity commercial air travel ...yet.

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 01:37 PM
Here's the link to the article: https://www.ft.com/content/24fffce8-e52a-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

I agree with the author; Government projections of zero carbon emissions by 2050....is likely wishful thinking, unless there is a big change of mind in the consumers. Per my original post, the EV's only represent one tenth of one percent currently vs. the gas powered numbers.....worldwide.

Are you able to read the rest of the article? There is a paywall for me so I cannot see the rest of the article.

Also, initial questions from the few sentences posted:
- the 1.1b gas powered vehicles globally represents maybe 50 years of car sales/inventory whereas the 8m EVs represent cars sold in the past X years (<10 years?); is the adoption curve for both datasets expected to be the same?
- what is the definition of EV in the article/data?; is the 8m all variants including hybrids?
- what is the assumption for the adoption curve? does it look like the original adoption curve for older technologies or is it factoring the adoption/proliferation curve for newer technologies as well as consumer behaviour (urbanization, density, millennials/Gen Z/etc)?

I agree that the targets appear unrealistic given the infrastructure required to replace/support (and replacement of current inventory at the consumer level) but Moore's law and other models still continue to play out and tipping points are coming quickly with battery tech and quantum technologies.

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 01:40 PM
They're working on it.


Obviously not talking about high-capacity commercial air travel ...yet.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48630656

NASA is also working on electric aircraft. There are way more short haul than long haul flights so one can see displacement occurring in that market as Boeing, Airbus, Rolls Royce, Siemens, Pratt & Whitney, etc commercialize their engines in aircraft in the next few years.

Gr8Stang
10-07-2019, 02:12 PM
Are you able to read the rest of the article? There is a paywall for me so I cannot see the rest of the article.

Also, initial questions from the few sentences posted:
- the 1.1b gas powered vehicles globally represents maybe 50 years of car sales/inventory whereas the 8m EVs represent cars sold in the past X years (<10 years?); is the adoption curve for both datasets expected to be the same?
- what is the definition of EV in the article/data?; is the 8m all variants including hybrids?
- what is the assumption for the adoption curve? does it look like the original adoption curve for older technologies or is it factoring the adoption/proliferation curve for newer technologies as well as consumer behaviour (urbanization, density, millennials/Gen Z/etc)?

I agree that the targets appear unrealistic given the infrastructure required to replace/support (and replacement of current inventory at the consumer level) but Moore's law and other models still continue to play out and tipping points are coming quickly with battery tech and quantum technologies.

That's weird....I just google'd the article title and it came up in the results....I clicked on it and it gave me the article....and I don't have any subscription. I used Chrome....not that I would think that matters.

Here's a cut and paste of the entire article.....

Opinion Electric vehicles

Electric vehicles are being outpaced by the growth of SUVs
Public support for EVs has to be won before carbon reduction targets can be met


Anyone who believes that behavioural change is going to produce a solution to the challenge of global warming should take a good look at the lat est figures on consumer choices in the auto sector. Electric vehicles are growing in number and quality but they are being outstripped by the popularity of SUVs — sports utility vehicles with four-wheel drive and a raised clearance which make them suitable for off-road driving.

A casual reader of the media during the past few months could easily get the idea that electric vehicles were in the process of taking over the market. One headline tells us that the electric vehicle boom is coming. Another says that the boom offers a bleak future for gasoline.

EV numbers are certainly growing. Worldwide, some 5.1m electric vehicles were on the world’s roads by the end of 2018, an increase of 2m over the previous year. That growth will certainly continue. Dozens of new models are being brought on to the market this year and there has been a surge of investment in associated infrastructure such as charging points, of which there are now more than 5m worldwide, according to the International Energy Agency. Despite some decline in the very rapid growth seen in China in recent years, global sales of EVs are expected to rise by between 2.4m and 2.9m this year.

The oil majors, led by BP and Shell, have bought into charging technology in anticipation of the growth to come. The IEA anticipates in its new policies scenario that, by 2030, EV sales could reach some 23m a year, creating a stock of about 130m vehicles. Taken in isolation, that could make a dent in the demand for gasoline of some 2.5m barrels per day.

But EVs cannot be considered in isolation. The 7m to 8m EVs that should be on the road by the end of 2019 represent less than a tenth of 1 per cent of the 1.1bn cars and other light vehicles that use internal combustion engines. Some 85m ICE vehicles were sold worldwide in 2018.

The even more telling fact is that the growth of EVs is being exceeded by the much more rapid growth in the number of SUVs. After growth of over 20 per cent a year earlier in the decade, the global demand for SUVs is now stabilising but at a high level of market share. In the US, SUVs account for 45 per cent of new car sales. But the trend is not limited to the US. In Europe SUVs take 34 per cent of new sales, in China 42 per cent and in India 23 per cent.

The reason for the shift must lie in status (expressed in the words of one SUV advert as “muscular dynamism”) rather than either price or need for the specific capabilities which SUVs can offer. On the road where I live in south London I counted three electric vehicles and 20 SUVs of one sort or another. There are few mountains anywhere close to London and none of the rough terrain for which SUVs are suited. SUVs vary in price but few are cheaper than comparable saloon cars. Almost all are far less efficient in terms of fuel consumption. The popularity of SUVs has been evident for some time, but the past two years have seen sharply increased demand.

Where does this leave the climate debate? More than 60 countries across the world from Switzerland to the small island states of the Caribbean are now committed to achieving zero net carbon emissions by 2050. A few are making commitments to earlier dates. The US Democrats are moving to a policy position that will have 100 per cent of new car sales being zero carbon vehicles by the early 2030s. But someone seems to have forgotten to tell the consumer. Some of the 25m-30m SUVs being sold this year are hybrids with both petrol engine and plug-in electric capacity, but most remain dependent on internal combustion engines.

As yet, none of the countries committed to zero net carbon have published detailed plans on how such an ambitious target will be met. Announcing targets 30 years ahead of time is an easy step for politicians to take, and implies that action is being taken. The evidence of the car market suggests, however, that public support has to be won before any new targets can be credible. Climate concern may have grown along with support for Green parties and the broader environmental agenda. But that support is still limited and has not penetrated far enough to alter consumer choices.

The writer is an energy commentator for the FT and chair of The Policy Institute at King’s College London

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 02:43 PM
Yeah, for some reason I got the paywall - maybe because I'd read some free content there in the past. A key point they noted is that politicians can get away with making long term pronouncements and get brownie points without having to do the work right now (which we do see here as running an election campaign trumps carbon emissions).

On the flip side, it appears that the sales segment that is growing (in the sales market the writer refers to - Europe), small SUV (#1 in growth; #2 is EV), is also going to see rapid electrification in the coming years. Probably easier to do in Europe/Asia with smaller driving distances/urbanization/more density.

https://europe.autonews.com/sales-segment/europes-fast-growing-small-suv-segment-attracts-new-entrants-ford-toyota-jeep-and


Excerpts:

Europe's mass-market small SUV segment is growing so rapidly that key players such as Ford, Jeep and Opel are doubling their model offerings. Last year the segment -- which continues to be led by the Renault Captur -- outpaced growth in all others except electric cars, with a 37 percent increase to 1.83 million units.

Electric future

Electrification in the sector is rapidly increasing the closer the European industry gets to the launch of tougher fleet CO2 targets starting in 2020. While automakers find the cost of applying emissions technology and electrification to traditional small cars hard to justify, the price bump and consumer pull of small SUVs mean that the full range of electrification is about to be deployed in the sector.

Last year just 0.2 percent of small SUV sales were full electric (the Hyundai Kona EV), with no plug-in hybrids, but that is expected to change.

PSA Group is leading the charge on electric. PSA's Opel unit has said it will make a full-electric version of its new Mokka X in 2020, while Peugeot has announced it will make an electric 2008 with sales starting early next year. Citroen is also working on an electric version of its C3 Aircross. Last year the small SUV sector was 69 percent gasoline and 29 percent diesel, JATO figures show.

hammerhead
10-07-2019, 02:44 PM
China was big on EV's for many years now. The decline may be for two reasons - many of the cars where close to useless after 5 years and declined to a very short range of 50 mile round trip - these ev's at the time where very inexpensive to purchase but in hindsight a waste of money - their government also imposed incentives to manufacturing to eliminate these cheaper versions of ev's likely making them too expensive to purchase or people just fed up with junk. The world wide percentage was always around 1% which is a spit in the bucket compared to internal combustion. After following how ev's developed in China I quickly lost interest in them as being a practical affordable source of transportation for most families, as their main form of transportation. I think once people have a fill of ev's here they may regret buying them. It's too soon to tell because they have been in China much longer than here. People wanting SUV's is no surprise even with ev's out of the equation. Most economical internal combustion cars are useless to families but all that was available to appease tree huggers and the quest to use less fuel... disclaimer: most of this is my opinion based on years of reading about ev's and cars in general... lol

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 03:03 PM
Made in China EVs....hmmm.

hammerhead
10-07-2019, 03:29 PM
Made in China EVs....hmmm.

their leading the world and have all the lithium...but yah - I'm curious to see how the first Tesla are doing now, must be close to 5 years...

RedSN
10-07-2019, 03:35 PM
their leading the world and have all the lithium...
after Australia, Chile, and Argentina you mean?

Rank Country/Region lithium mine production (tonnes)
1 Australia 18,700
2 Chile 14,100
3 Argentina 5,500
4 China 3,000

*2017 numbers. Apparently China is now #3 with 8,000. And Australia is now up to 51,000.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/lithium-investing/lithium-producing-countries/

Point is: Australia is the biggest producer of Lithium ....by far!

Follow-up: Largest Lithium reserves
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/lithium-investing/lithium-reserves-country/
1. Chile 8,000,000 MT
2. Australia 2,700,000 MT
3. Argentina 2,000,000 MT
4. China 1,000,000 MT

hammerhead
10-07-2019, 04:12 PM
after Australia, Chile, and Argentina you mean?

Rank Country/Region lithium mine production (tonnes)
1 Australia 18,700
2 Chile 14,100
3 Argentina 5,500
4 China 3,000

*2017 numbers. Apparently China is now #3 with 8,000. And Australia is now up to 51,000.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/lithium-investing/lithium-producing-countries/

Point is: Australia is the biggest producer of Lithium ....by far!

Follow-up: Largest Lithium reserves
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/lithium-investing/lithium-reserves-country/
1. Chile 8,000,000 MT
2. Australia 2,700,000 MT
3. Argentina 2,000,000 MT
4. China 1,000,000 MT

thanks Don - the one in Chile or maybe its Argentina is huge but difficult to mine - I may have read about deposits sizes not production but it was many years ago and a lot of the news out of china was questionable at best

Snaketamer
10-07-2019, 04:15 PM
Maybe you'll be adding North Eastern Ontario(Cobalt) to that list of high-purity battery grade material producers.


With North America’s only permitted cobalt refinery in its possession, First Cobalt has eyes on supplying the American electric vehicle market.

https://www.baytoday.ca/local-news/glencore-finances-cobalt-refinery-startup-1591255

5.4MarkVIII
10-07-2019, 04:31 PM
their leading the world and have all the lithium...but yah - I'm curious to see how the first Tesla are doing now, must be close to 5 years...

I don't think its that they have the most. its more that refining the lithium is so hazardous there arnt many country's willing to do it. remember articles years ago showing the devastation to arias in China due to the lithium refining. but there are all but impossible to find now that the push is electric and GHG are the "biggest problem"

5.4MarkVIII
10-07-2019, 04:33 PM
id be very interested to see a projection of what kind of power demand it would be to switch even half of the cars in the world to full electric. in a comparison to current production and the grids ability to handle it.

hammerhead
10-07-2019, 05:03 PM
id be very interested to see a projection of what kind of power demand it would be to switch even half of the cars in the world to full electric. in a comparison to current production and the grids ability to handle it.

that's part of my point and I lost interest even reading about it - you figure if say by 2030 its a 50-50 ratio (all hypothetical) - increased demand for electricity our government will meet that by burning fossil fuel - but the key is battery life. If say battery life is ten years (and I think that's will be conservative) and the cost of a new car is 100,000 grand for one with a descent range - at 2040 you now have to begin doubling battery production to meet replacement batteries and keep new car production going. My reading lead me to believe they will run out of lithium. Recycling batteries they say will not be a string as they where when new. This could work but if there isn't a better power source or we don't drastically change the need for transportation I cant see it lasting...but it gives us something to clammer about...lol

Armen
10-07-2019, 05:48 PM
Guaranteed... Full Electric SUV’s and P/U trucks are coming.

5.4MarkVIII
10-07-2019, 06:19 PM
that's part of my point and I lost interest even reading about it - you figure if say by 2030 its a 50-50 ratio (all hypothetical) - increased demand for electricity our government will meet that by burning fossil fuel - but the key is battery life. If say battery life is ten years (and I think that's will be conservative) and the cost of a new car is 100,000 grand for one with a descent range - at 2040 you now have to begin doubling battery production to meet replacement batteries and keep new car production going. My reading lead me to believe they will run out of lithium. Recycling batteries they say will not be a string as they where when new. This could work but if there isn't a better power source or we don't drastically change the need for transportation I cant see it lasting...but it gives us something to clammer about...lol

and don't forget Tesla as an example wont let you do anything to the car or you loose updates and warranty's. so recycled or aftermarket batteries wont be allowed, much like apple. its all apple or nothing

RedSN
10-07-2019, 07:22 PM
Apple seems to be doing quite well.

5.4MarkVIII
10-07-2019, 07:52 PM
Sure. But I’d argue (with no facts but completely anecdotal) that the culture of a business forcing limitations on accessories and lifetime of a product ( 3 year max lifespan of most phone users)

Causes more harm to the environment

Imagine a car being obsolete after 3 years. The waste and garbage is almost unimaginable

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 08:24 PM
Sure. But I’d argue (with no facts but completely anecdotal) that the culture of a business forcing limitations on accessories and lifetime of a product ( 3 year max lifespan of most phone users)

Causes more harm to the environment

Imagine a car being obsolete after 3 years. The waste and garbage is almost unimaginable

My iPhone 6 is long past 3 years in operation and works well - plus Apple's management of their environment, as much as we may not agree with some of the controls, means their ecosystem has remained generally easy to use and secure relative to others (including at the computer level)....and Apple users are generally a satisfied bunch so I'm not sure the above assessment is accurate. As Tesla is a rolling computer, imagine if they didn't control their environment tightly and had the same virus/hacker/ransomware issues like your Microsoft PC at home?

83 5.0
10-07-2019, 08:50 PM
The cost between servicing an Apple product compared to a Tesla with proprietary hardware obviously will be huge, but would make for a great third party market.
I bet big rigs, large construction machinery spew more GHG emissions than the auto market, there is so much that would need to be electrified it is mind boggling.
Also these things need a lot of plastic to build, so oils days of being over are still a long way out (if ever)

5.4MarkVIII
10-07-2019, 08:57 PM
My iPhone 6 is long past 3 years in operation and works well - plus Apple's management of their environment, as much as we may not agree with some of the controls, means their ecosystem has remained generally easy to use and secure relative to others (including at the computer level)....and Apple users are generally a satisfied bunch so I'm not sure the above assessment is accurate. As Tesla is a rolling computer, imagine if they didn't control their environment tightly and had the same virus/hacker/ransomware issues like your Microsoft PC at home?

on my 4th generation of iphones, all previous have stopped working properly around the 3 year mark, its been 2 years since the style I have now, and its been replaced twice.

my imac made it 5 years, and never worked right after the first 3 years. by 5 it was as usefull as a brick.

as someone that works on electronics and computer controlled appliances every single day, the PROGRAMED short life in most of our computer controlled stuff we use every single day. I can pretty much guarantee that the waste of constant forced replacement is only gonna get worse. and id bet if compared to an older car the tesla is worse for the environment.

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 09:27 PM
on my 4th generation of iphones, all previous have stopped working properly around the 3 year mark, its been 2 years since the style I have now, and its been replaced twice.

my imac made it 5 years, and never worked right after the first 3 years. by 5 it was as usefull as a brick.

as someone that works on electronics and computer controlled appliances every single day, the PROGRAMED short life in most of our computer controlled stuff we use every single day. I can pretty much guarantee that the waste of constant forced replacement is only gonna get worse. and id bet if compared to an older car the tesla is worse for the environment.

Yeah sorry - I don't think I've had that experience with my electronics. Only reason I upgraded to the 6 was because I dropped my 3Gs model and cracked the screen then tried to repair myself which didn't go as planned, lol. I still have 2 tube TVs in the house that won't die along with a +30 year old microwave that I might finally have an excuse to replace. All my phones have gone 5-6 years and I only upgraded due to needing more memory or needing a battery change (battery cost was close to getting upgraded) after all that time. All major appliances we have are +19 years old (did replace the A/C unit after 18 years) - there have been the odd small issues but nothing major/costly. I guess I am lucky with the majority of my electronics.

5.4MarkVIII
10-07-2019, 10:57 PM
sounds like your one of the lucky ones. lol

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 11:08 PM
Maybe I am...hope the streak continues, lol. I have to buy a new humidifier so hoping for another 20 years or so. I've had the opportunity to review the financial statements and review the payouts of some of the largest extended warranty providers in Canada (both those that are self insured and re-insured) and the breakage/coverage payouts don't appear to be out of line with the rates you would find online (4-6% rates on average which would indicate the majority seem fine).

5.4MarkVIII
10-07-2019, 11:15 PM
extended warranties have taken a move to cap repair costs and a few are all but bleeding money. I predict a drastic change in the extended warranty programs in the near future.

recent example wall oven new price between 3000 and 4000. extended warranty purchased (iirc around $500) 5 year coverage

2 years in Ui control failed. $1500 part, year later ACU failed $700 part. extended warranty company tells customer they fix it this last time and then coverage is over. despite only being 3 years old.

92redragtop
10-07-2019, 11:25 PM
extended warranties have taken a move to cap repair costs and a few are all but bleeding money. I predict a drastic change in the extended warranty programs in the near future.

recent example wall oven new price between 3000 and 4000. extended warranty purchased (iirc around $500) 5 year coverage

2 years in Ui control failed. $1500 part, year later ACU failed $700 part. extended warranty company tells customer they fix it this last time and then coverage is over. despite only being 3 years old.

How do you know they are bleeding money? How many appliances are sold in Canada each year and how many break? They have a decent margin, positive net income, and growing retained earnings from what I've seen - the guys taking a beating are the P&C guys....and maybe ICBC who took a $1 billion loss last year. I do know of one large furniture/appliance retailer I've looked at whose warranties are self insured by a related company owned/run by a family member - that one doesn't have a healthy balance sheet but what do you expect when stuff like this stays inside a family versus run by professionals.

5.4MarkVIII
10-08-2019, 07:34 AM
repair incidences and costs have gone up by a huge margin. in the last year I've seem extended warranty companies that have never complained about a repair cost start capping customers and walking away from contracts saying "requirements fulfilled"

I don't think they would do that if they were still making decent profits. based totally on my personal anecdotal experience id say the average in warranty repair has tripled in price. in the last 10 to 15 years. mostly due to the cost of these new electronic components.

ive also seen an adjustment in warranty policy's by the manufactures, and an uptick in warranty refusal incidences.

Armen
10-08-2019, 09:32 AM
I have an iPhone 7. No issues. Not one. And I’d buy a Tesla in a second if it was in my price range. My friend has a 3 Performance and it’s astounding!

92redragtop
10-08-2019, 09:47 AM
repair incidences and costs have gone up by a huge margin. in the last year I've seem extended warranty companies that have never complained about a repair cost start capping customers and walking away from contracts saying "requirements fulfilled"

I don't think they would do that if they were still making decent profits. based totally on my personal anecdotal experience id say the average in warranty repair has tripled in price. in the last 10 to 15 years. mostly due to the cost of these new electronic components.

ive also seen an adjustment in warranty policy's by the manufactures, and an uptick in warranty refusal incidences.

Well I'll see what their latest financial statements look like when they come in but I didn't see any issues with the ones we reviewed this year and were able to give them good credit ratings based on their financial performance/strength in their 2018 fiscal year.

RedSN
10-08-2019, 10:36 AM
I have an iPhone 7. No issues. Not one. And I’d buy a Tesla in a second if it was in my price range. My friend has a 3 Performance and it’s astounding!
Maybe they should adopt the same business model? Offer owners a new Tesla every 3-5 years, re-furbish it with a new battery, send it back out as a re-furbished model.

stangstevers
10-08-2019, 12:44 PM
Maybe they should adopt the same business model? Offer owners a new Tesla every 3-5 years, re-furbish it with a new battery, send it back out as a re-furbished model.

I will forward your idea to Musk :D

G-ForceJunkie
10-08-2019, 05:15 PM
IMO, electric vehicle sales are on the cusp of taking off. In 5 years it won't be weird to own an electric car. In 15 it will be weird to buy a gas powered car.

92redragtop
10-08-2019, 05:18 PM
IMO, electric vehicle sales are on the cusp of taking off. In 5 years it won't be weird to own an electric car. In 15 it will be weird to buy a gas powered car.

You mean like staring at a "phone" all the time (versus 10 years ago)?

G-ForceJunkie
10-08-2019, 08:45 PM
I guess so. I've yet to meet an EV owner unhappy with their purchase. The running costs are low compared to gas - and gas isn't even expensive right now. Cost is the biggest issue, but that's going to come down as the major manufacturers get behind it - or the delta will decrease as gas prices increase. And in a few years you won't be limited to a few cars. There will be an EV version of just about everything out there.

onDjuice
10-08-2019, 09:11 PM
How dare you!!! Bible time. As long has there’s oil we are going to us it. Who say it’s not renewable??

G-ForceJunkie
10-08-2019, 09:25 PM
I don't think it's about trying to get off oil. EVs are going to be better cars.

stangstevers
10-09-2019, 07:25 AM
Imagine today's powerplants in 80's tin. You could have 50 plus MPG in most cars.

onDjuice
10-09-2019, 09:12 AM
I don't think it's about trying to get off oil. EVs are going to be better cars.

Has I said many times before EV car are not clean and not the answer.

RedSN
10-09-2019, 10:32 AM
China and India are building coal plants by the hundreds.

China is also home of the world's largest hydroelectric power generating facility, the Three Gorges Dam. At least China is trying to shift away from coal.

India is much worse than China.

5.4MarkVIII
10-09-2019, 02:36 PM
Biggest issue for me with electric cars is the cost. I’d be looking at one for work since I burn threw the better part of 5 grand in gas a year with my edge but can’t justify the 100k price tag

Maybe when there are more options.

stangstevers
10-10-2019, 08:38 AM
Funny there are other implications. Say the world wakes up and all the cars are Tesla-like with self-driving capability.

OPP wouldn't really have to monitor the highways, speed limits enforced via software... commit a crime and the car could in theory lock the doors and drive you to a police station lol

Imagine saying "trudeau sucks" on facebook and your car takes you to the RCMP for questioning?

5.4MarkVIII
10-10-2019, 08:43 AM
Ultimate big brother. There was an artical a few years back talking about the large scale economic impact of self driving cars.

Delivery, taxies, trucks, less police required, to less accidents. So would affect tow trucks, body men, parts stores, mechanics, ect ext ext.

Gr8Stang
10-10-2019, 09:45 AM
Funny there are other implications. Say the world wakes up and all the cars are Tesla-like with self-driving capability.

OPP wouldn't really have to monitor the highways, speed limits enforced via software... commit a crime and the car could in theory lock the doors and drive you to a police station lol

Imagine saying "trudeau sucks" on facebook and your car takes you to the RCMP for questioning?

Parking lot wouldn't be big enough....;)